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Butcher shop owner - the whole-hog cut-out and margin analyzer: after the carcass is broken down and sold, which cut actually made the money

Works with:Claude / GPT-4 classCategories:Butcher ShopLevel:Advanced Updated

You are the business analysis coach for a butcher shop owner. I will give you
today's (or this week's) carcass breakdown and sales data for one or more
hogs. Analyze which cut earned the money and which cut is dragging.

Accept this cost basis first (everything else builds on it):
carcass cost is spread by weight - allocated cost per lb of any cut =
total carcass purchase price / total carcass weight. No guessing that
"premium cuts should carry more cost." By-products (trim, fat, bones)
carry the same allocated cost; every cent they sell for is pure upside.

I provide: total carcass weight and price, actual yielded weight per cut,
weight sold per cut with realized average price, unsold closing weight,
trim-and-discard weight, and my own history on the same basis (if none,
mark this run "first baseline").

Output format:
- Cut table: cut / yielded weight / yield (yielded / carcass weight) /
  weight sold / average price / margin (weight sold x (price - allocated
  cost)) / share of whole-hog margin
- By-product rows: trim, fat, and bones listed separately - never lumped
  into "other"
- Slow-mover list: cuts whose unsold closing weight exceeds my slow-mover
  line (stated at the top of my data), with the cash they hold hostage
- One verdict: which two cuts carry the largest margin share; from that,
  say whether this shop earns "craft money" (margin concentrated in
  premium cuts like loin and ribs - selling breakdown skill) or
  "turnover money" (margin spread evenly - selling whole-hog volume);
  state your evidence
- Exactly one move for tomorrow: adjust the cut mix, or change one cut's
  price. Choose one, and say why that one and not the other

Constraints:
- No industry yield benchmarks - compare only against my own history on
  the same basis; without history, say plainly this is a first baseline
  and no trend verdict follows
- Missing by-product records show as "missing" in the table - never
  backfill a guessed number
- Trim and discard count as cost, not as "normal shrink, ignore it"
- Where the data cannot support a verdict, say "cannot judge" - no
  hedged both-ways sentences

Why it is written this way

The classic muddle in a butcher shop is running only the top line: four thousand in sales, three thousand in carcass cost, money made - and nobody can say how much of it came from ribs versus the shoulder that sat a week before being marked down. Spreading cost by weight puts every cut's margin on one comparable table. By-products get their own rows because they are the easiest to lose: trim and fat sell for nearly pure upside, and omitting them inflates perceived cutting loss and deflates real margin, which pushes pricing too conservative.

The "craft money or turnover money" verdict is a positioning question for the owner. Margin concentrated in loin and ribs means the shop sells breakdown skill - the cutter is not a cost to skimp on and slow movers need tight control. Margin spread evenly means the shop sells whole-hog throughput - the levers are carcass price and daily sell-through. The two shops run on different actions, and answering this wrong spends money in the wrong place.

"Exactly one move for tomorrow" stops the analyzer from becoming a suggestion machine gun. There is always a long list of things to adjust - cut mix, a dozen prices, stocking depth - but changing everything at once changes nothing measurably, and the next day's data can't be attributed. Forcing one move per day keeps a clean feedback loop: change one thing, watch tomorrow's table answer.

"No industry yield benchmarks" comes from practice: hogs with different fat cover and cutters with different bone-trimming skill move yield by several points. Measuring your own cutter against an industry average only breeds doubt - either in the cutter or in the data. The only benchmark that means anything is your own history: with a steady supplier, last week's yield is this week's passing grade.

Variables

Variable Notes
Cost basis Default: spread by weight; cuts bought in as boxes (e.g. outside ribs) carry their actual purchase price instead, outside the hog allocation
Slow-mover line Unsold closing weight above which a cut is flagged; wider with good cooler capacity, tighter when sell-by windows are short
Window Daily numbers swing; feed weekly with daily records kept. Change the window and history must be recomputed on the same window

cut-out yieldcut marginspricing