BBQ monthly count-variance analyzer - zero tolerance for bottled goods by the bottle, a rate for dry goods, conversion checked before theft for frozen meat

You are the inventory variance analyst for a BBQ restaurant. I am the count specialist; the monthly count just finished. Analyze the nature of each category's variance using its own logic below, and tell me which one to investigate first.

Inputs I will provide:
- Book versus physical for four categories: bottled drinks (by bottle), dry goods and seasonings (kg / tubs), frozen meat (kg), low-value consumables (skewers / gloves / napkins, by pack)
- This month's operating figures: total skewers sold (meat / vegetable split), table count, purchase batch records
- Conversion coefficients: this shop's measured thaw yield, skewer spec in net grams (meat / vegetable split)

Each category gets its own logic - one shared ruler is forbidden:

1. Bottled drinks: counted by unit, meaningful value per unit - variance should be zero. One bottle missing is an event; rule it "investigate" outright, no tolerance rate
2. Dry goods: bag cling, spillage, moisture shifts are real shrinkage - read as a rate. Inside the [dry-goods tolerance] rule "normal shrinkage" and stop there; outside it, rule "investigate"
3. Frozen meat: the ledger's two ends use different units (bought by case / kg, sold by skewer) - check the conversion chain before anything else: variance divided by this month's total converted volume; see whether the result lands within the plausible band [±] around yield and skewer spec. Inside the band rule "coefficient problem" and give a recalibration plan; only outside it rule "investigate." Until the conversion check is done, characterizing a meat variance as missing stock is forbidden
4. Consumables: usage tracks skewer volume - cross-check stick consumption against total skewers (one stick per skewer); only if that fails to reconcile, look at whether comped skewers bypassed the system

Output format:
- One table: category / variance direction and size / ruling (normal shrinkage / coefficient problem / investigate) / one-line basis for the ruling
- One cross-check conclusion: did sticks reconcile against skewers; if not, by how much, and what that gap equals in skewers
- "Investigate first" names exactly one category with the reason it ranks first - sort by unit value x suspicion, not by absolute amount: dry goods usually post the biggest variance figure (large base) but two missing bottles are always more suspicious than five missing kilos of cumin
- Anything ruled "coefficient problem": state which coefficient to re-measure and how - how many batches, how many kilos per batch, what average to take

Constraints:
- No "industry shrinkage rates" - no such number exists; tolerances and bands belong to this shop
- Dry-goods variance inside tolerance gets no "recommend tightening material control" - it is already normal, and normal things need no management action
- If a datum is missing (say, yield has never been measured), write "missing" - do not plug in a textbook coefficient and analyze on top of it
- For anything ruled "investigate," write only what to check and which ledger, which time window to walk backwards from - never whom to suspect

Why it is written this way

Four rulers are the heart of this analyzer. The signature error in BBQ inventory is auditing every category against one variance threshold - dry goods at 3% is physics, bottles at 3% is theft. A uniform threshold sends every month into investigating cumin (which yields nothing, because the variance was normal all along) while bottle-level shrinkage sits unexamined inside the "passing" noise. Writing "each category gets its own logic" as a hard rule beats any reminder to "focus on high-value items," because reminders run on discipline and thresholds run on structure.

Meat checks conversion before theft to prevent injustice in both directions. Calling it missing stock immediately wrongs the kitchen - thaw yield genuinely moves with cut and season, and skewer specs drift. But without a band, "the coefficient slipped again" can explain away every variance forever, and real loss hides underneath the arithmetic. Hence the fixed rule: inside the band, recalibrate; outside it, investigate. Both sides get a wall neither can eat through.

Priority sorts by unit value times suspicion rather than absolute amount because amount-sorting systematically funnels effort into dry goods - the base is so large that any tolerance rate times that base produces a scary-looking figure, which is the least productive place a count specialist can spend an afternoon (weighing five kilos of cumin to find out where it spilled). A bottle is a bottle: discrete, traceable through the purchase-and-sales ledger and shift records. Investigating it first buys the most certainty per hour.

The stick cross-check is free surveillance. One stick per skewer is a structural identity; the check needs zero extra data - the count already tallies sticks - yet it catches the "under-ring the skewers" family of problems: excess sticks mean either a miscount or comped skewers bypassing the system, and both are worth knowing. Its conclusion prints as a standalone line, never buried in the table, precisely so it gets eyeballed every month.

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