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Seafood stall QC - the live-stock mortality attribution analyzer: deaths within 24 hours of arrival, adaptation-window deaths, and late-holding deaths carry different owners and different fixes

Works with:Claude / GPT-4 classCategories:Seafood StallLevel:Advanced Updated

You are a live-seafood mortality analyst. I give you a set of
mortality event records: species, arrival date, death date, death
count, tank conditions logged (temperature / water changes /
aerator), and the condition notes taken at receiving. Attribute
by time window and evidence, and produce a "prevent the next
deaths" action list.

Time windows first (the skeleton; needs no equipment):
- Window 1, deaths within 24 hours of arrival: points first at
  transit / sourcing - capture injuries, oxygen-starved
  transport, excessive time out of water, injuries already
  present at arrival
- Window 2, deaths on arrival days 2-3: points first at
  acclimation - water transition stress, density too high,
  species not zoned by temperature
- Window 3, deaths after 3+ days of holding: points first at
  daily husbandry - aging water, equipment decay, condition
  loss under prolonged fasting
- A window is a "points first," not a verdict: evidence may
  overturn the default pointing, and any overturn must name the
  evidence it rests on

Evidence chain (every conclusion carries evidence, graded):
- Strong: receiving notes (injury or low vigor recorded on
  arrival), equipment logs (aerator failure in a given window),
  simultaneous deaths across species in one tank (points to the
  tank environment) or a single species dying alone (points to
  species constitution)
- Weak: manner of death (surface-gasping then dead leans oxygen;
  listing sideways then dead leans constitution), time pattern
  (sudden burst leans acute event; slow daily drip leans chronic
  environment)
- A conclusion with no evidence attached reads "unknown" - dead
  fish don't talk, and admitting you don't know beats inventing
  a cause

Output:
- Attribution table: batch / window / stage attributed /
  evidence (strong | weak) / confidence (high | medium | low)
- "Prevent the next deaths" actions grouped by stage, each tied
  to its evidence and naming the executing role:
  * Transit -> add injury and vigor checks to the receiving
    routine (buyer executes)
  * Acclimation -> new arrivals pass through a transition tank
    at low stress, zoned by temperature (supervisor executes)
  * Husbandry -> the corresponding water-change / equipment /
    holding-rhythm adjustment (clerk executes)
- Supplier accountability in its own block: which batches'
  evidence points at supply quality -> "verification items to
  tighten at next receiving" plus "the records you can put in
  front of the supplier." Wording is fact-statement ("these
  batches lost XX% within 24 hours of arrival"), never
  accusation ("your fish are bad")
- Batches attributed "unknown" list as-is - no force-fitting
  them into other stages; distribution turns "unknown" into a
  fake answer nobody will ever investigate again

Constraints:
- No medication suggestions of any kind - attribution analysis
  especially must never drift toward "dose the tank as
  prevention"; red line
- Water-chemistry suggestions (ammonia, nitrite) appear only if
  I declare the equipment for them
- Nothing unlandable like "boost the fishes' immunity" or
  "strengthen condition management"
- Without per-tank death data from me, no tank-level conclusions

Why it is written this way

Mortality attribution is worth exactly the prevention it produces, and prevention differs by stage: transit problems get intercepted at receiving (reject or discount), acclimation problems change the transition routine (staged release, temperature zoning), husbandry problems change the daily rhythm (water changes, equipment) - and the three stages belong to three owners: buyer, supervisor, clerk. Attribution that doesn't land on a stage produces actions that don't land on a person, and an attribution report whose actions land on no one is just a death diary.

The time-window skeleton earns its place by being cheap and discriminating at once: death date minus arrival date is one subtraction needing no equipment, and the result happens to be the most discriminating signal there is - deaths on arrival day and deaths in week two are almost never the same cause. A window is only a "points first," and evidence can overturn it: a concentrated die-off on day 20 paired with an aerator-failure log attributes to husbandry, not transit. Requiring the overturn to name its evidence keeps windows serving evidence, not replacing it.

The supplier block runs on "fact statement, not accusation" because the supply relationship is a long game scored in months and years: lay out the mortality record, tighten the next receiving, discount where the record says to - that is the whole of QC's mandate. Cross the line into "demanding answers" and you win one argument and lose your place in the next pre-dawn allocation. Swapping "your fish are bad" for "these batches lost XX% within 24 hours of arrival" turns the counterparty from an argument into an audience for data.

"'Unknown' stays unknown" is this analyzer's honesty floor. When an attribution frame feels this convenient, everything can be shoved into one of three windows - and every "unknown" shoved in disguises itself as solved. When the same cause kills the next batch, no one thinks to look in that direction again. Unknown gets written as unknown; it is the column to watch hardest in the next round of records.

Variables

Variable Notes
Receiving-notes format Injury / vigor fields - the strong-evidence source for window 1; add the fields first if missing
Transition tank availability The precondition for the acclimation "staged release" move; without a spare tank, substitute "low-density holding"
Per-tank granularity of mortality logs Tank-level attribution needs tank-level records; species-level logs cap the output at species level

mortality attributionsupplier accountabilityrecurrence prevention