Fast food franchisee - pre-renewal self-audit checklist, starting six months out: every line reads "what to check / what evidence / what should worry you," and franchisor performance is judged from records, not vibes

You are an advisor to a franchisee in a fast food
chain. My franchise agreement expires in [6] months.
Give me a renewal-decision self-audit checklist
organized in the four blocks below, where every
line has three columns: what to check / what
evidence / what should worry you.

Block one: profit trend (not profit total)
- Month-by-month operating profit for the last
  [12] months: which direction, inflection in
  which month - evidence: the monthly P&L, not
  bank statements
- Payback progress vs. the original pro forma:
  at current monthly profit, how much longer to
  recover the investment - worry line: projected
  payback more than [double] the original
  estimate
- The two rigid lines ahead: next lease's expected
  rent step-up, local wage trends - evidence:
  communication with the landlord, competing
  stores' help-wanted pay

Block two: franchisor track record (records, not
impressions)
- Every support promise from recruitment and the
  contract, item by item: actual supervisor visit
  count, actual new-item launch cadence, marketing
  campaigns this store actually received,
  equipment service response times - evidence:
  visit logs, campaign notices, repair tickets
- Supply pricing vs. the open market: the markup
  on mandated-supplier key items against local
  market prices of equal quality - evidence:
  both quotations
- Brand momentum in this city: more openings than
  closings over the past two years, or the
  reverse - evidence: the brand's pin count on a
  map app over time, not news articles
- Worry line: under half of promised support
  delivered, and similar complaints are the norm
  in the franchisee group, not just my store

Block three: trade area and competition
- Same-brand store count within three kilometers
  (infill by the franchisor in my own trade area
  is a major renewal risk: it is internal
  cannibalization)
- Competitor moves over the past year: openings,
  menu overlap with mine
- The property's future: redevelopment or
  repositioning plans - evidence: written word
  from the property manager or public notices

Block four: exit math (negotiating power comes
from being able to walk)
- Transfer path: contract restrictions on
  assignment (does the franchisor hold approval
  rights over buyers, how is the transfer fee
  set), and recent actual transfer deals for
  this brand
- Closing cost: equipment residual value, lease
  termination penalty, severance - listed
  separately, never summed
- A side-by-side: renew (rate changes? term
  length?) vs. switch brands (what conversion
  costs exist as line items)

Format requirements:
- Every line three columns: what to check / what
  evidence / what should worry you - "gut feel"
  and "as I recall" are banned from the evidence
  column
- Cap the checklist at [25] lines, ordered by
  impact on the decision; anything that cannot
  make the top 25 does not move the decision
- End with a "red flag summary": which worry lines,
  once triggered, upgrade the renewal conversation
  (rate relief / shorter renewal term / bring in
  a lawyer)

Constraints:
- Name no brands and invent no brand policies -
  every contract-related line carries "the
  contract text governs; read the original first"
- Do not make the renew/not-renew decision for me
  - the checklist produces facts and worry lines;
  the decision stays mine
- No "franchising involves risk" disclaimer
  boilerplate

Why it is written this way

Profit is inspected as a trend, not a total, because renewal buys the future. Plenty of people renew on "I made two million over these years" while the last twelve months slide downhill with an inflection the month a competitor opened - the total is history; the trend is what the next term has to live with. Likewise, payback progress is compared against the original pro forma as a multiple, with a worry line at "double": past that point the original model is dead, and projecting the next term with it is self-deception.

Requiring records for every franchisor-performance line is the most counter-instinctive part of this checklist. Franchisees talk about their franchisor entirely in emotions, but emotions carry no weight at a table - "the supervisor barely shows up" is a grievance, while "visit logs show 3 visits in 14 months against a contractual monthly one" is ammunition. Banning "gut feel" from the evidence column forces the collection to start six months early, and the act of collecting itself changes the franchisee's posture in the later negotiation.

Exit math is where negotiating power comes from: a person who can afford to walk is the only person who can negotiate. With transfer restrictions, equipment residual value, and penalties laid out, "renew" stops being the sole option and becomes one side of a comparison - and much of the renewal season's concessions (rate, term, trade-area protection) are won precisely at that moment. The checklist pointedly refuses to make the renew/not-renew call: its output is decision material, and nobody signs what an AI decided.

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